Natural Gas is struggling to maintain its bull trend as prices threaten to fall below the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Will Natural Gas continue to sell off or rebound?
Ichimoku Cloud analysis of the Light Crude Oil futures (CL) market shows signs that the market is going to make a bullish move. The market has been flat since March after its last push up at the beginning of 2022. With current geopolitics reducing crude oil supply, the charts indicate prices are looking to head higher.
Light Crude Oil has formed a bull flag over the last couple of months, with prices above the Ichimoku Cloud. Momentum has shifted up on the weekly Ichimoku Cloud. Prices have pulled away from the conversion line. Light Crude has pushed through the March 24, 2022 high and is working to break above the bull flag congestion zone. Look for prices to continue upwards to the Wave 7 high and then on to the 3.618 target.
The weekly bull flag is shown on the daily chart as an extended congestion zone. On May 4th Light Crude Oil indicated a shift in momentum to the upside. Notice how the market’s lows have been getting progressively higher since the bottom of Wave 2. Additionally, the highs have also been slowly getting higher. Price has broken over the daily Ichimoku Cloud, as has the Lagging Line, a sign that the buyers are gaining the upper hand.
The daily chart does not show a clear up trending market, it looks flat. However, the Ichimoku Cloud is picking up signals, that Light Crude Oil is setting up for another push to the upside. The current move above the March 24th high, green lights an opportunity for buyers to go long Light Crude Oil.
An obvious quick target is the old Wave 1 high on the daily chart. Crude Oil prices are likely to head higher, though, to the target zone indicated, as the market will find resistance in this area and back off.
The 60-minute chart shows Light Crude Oil started making its upwards move at the end of last week. Crude Oil broke above the Ichimoku Cloud and the strong momentum took prices through the target zone before congesting into a bull flag. The target zone acted as support for the bull flag, a very bullish sign. A wave 6 formed, as the bulls gathered energy to push higher. In today’s move Light Crude Oil broke up to the 1.618 target. As the 6 Wave was shallow, the 1.618 target was in front of the target zone. It’s likely Light Crude Oil will now consolidate on the 60-minute chart at the 1.618 target before making another move up.
Buyers looking to go long Light Crude Oil, could use a break of the next 60-Minute bull flag as an opportunity to enter.
The Soybean futures (ZS) market has a bullish trend and a nice-looking buy setup. Price is above the Ichimoku Cloud on the weekly, daily, and hourly charts.
The weekly chart started its uptrend in May of 2020. Notice how the Ichimoku Cloud held price on the 2 Wave downdraft indicating significant support at this point. The Span B of the Ichimoku Cloud often acts as support or resistance and in this case, it acted as support. A strong 3 Wave followed and the price has now gone flat, setting up a typical-looking bull flag. The pole was formed from the 2 Wave to the 3 Wave and the flag is shown by the top congestion zone. Most of the time markets in this configuration break up. The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging line is clear of price, the price momentum is up and Soybeans could head higher to continue their bull trend.
Should Soybeans break up, look for price to reach the target zone.
The price on the daily chart has a similar configuration to the weekly chart. Soybeans have been trending up, prices keep pushing above the Ichimoku Cloud. The weekly flag can be seen here as a daily flag, with a longer congestion zone. Price has created a W pattern inside the flag. At the end of last week, the price indicated, Soybeans may begin to head higher.
Should the price break above the flag’s congestion zone, shown by the highs of the 3 Wave and the 5 Wave, you could buy. Look for prices to continue to the top of the target zone. An entry on this daily time frame set-ups a bullish position for the longer-term weekly targets.
Soybeans continue to be in an uptrend on the 60-minute chart. Price headed to the targets and backed off. A congestion zone has been set up around the equilibrium of the Ichimoku Cloud.
When markets break up, as seen from the 6 Wave to 7 Wave, the price often will then retrace and congest until it encounters the Ichimoku Cloud. The old 5 Wave and Ichimoku Cloud Span B are acting as support. If the price is held by this support, look for Soybeans to once again continue upwards.
Once Soybeans resume their uptrend on the 60-minute chart, watch for the daily chart to push higher as well.
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Ichimoku Cloud analysis of the US Natural Gas futures market. Does Natural Gas have more opportunity for buyers or is it time to sell?
Caterpillar Inc. ( CAT ) is looking to break up to continue its bull trend. Ichimoku Cloud analysis indicates Caterpillar stock could push higher in the coming weeks.
CAT had a strong vertical move up from June 2020 to June 2021. Price climbed above the Ichimoku Cloud on the weekly chart and the uptrend pulled price away from the equilibrium of point of the Ichimoku Cloud.
In June of 2021, price began a retracement on the weekly chart and formed a horizontal bull flag. The retracement did not pull price below Ichimoku Cloud and CAT maintained its uptrend.
The Ichimoku Cloud noted on the week of March 14th, that CAT was preparing for another bull move. CAT has begun working its way upwards towards the purple target zone. Should price break above the top of the Wave 1 on this weekly chart, look for CAT to move to the black line at the beginning of the target zone.
The daily chart shows CAT has moved above the Ichimoku Cloud and formed an uptrend. The Ichimoku Cloud indicates the momentum is up and price is looking to climb higher. The daily chart shows a vertical move from Wave 0 to Wave 1, which shifted to a textbook horizontal retracement.
Price on the daily chart popped above the Wave 1 swing high, consolidated and now has closed above the Wave 1 pivot. If price moves above the Wave 3 high, it’s more than likely going to head up to the daily target zone.
The daily chart offers an early opportunity entry with relatively small risk for the weekly move.
The hourly chart again shows CAT has moved above the Ichimoku Cloud and formed an uptrend. Price hit the extended targets on the hourly chart, and pulled away from the equilibrium point of the Ichimoku Cloud. CAT has encountered resistance and likely will consolidate forming a bull flag as it waits for the Ichimoku Cloud to catch up later this week.
CAT is setup to take out the Wave 3 high on this 60-minute chart and then move towards the daily targets and possibly continue on to the weekly targets.
Ichimoku Cloud analysis of the US Natural Gas futures market shows where the market is headed and what upcoming targets to look for.
Current geo-politics make Natural Gas an interesting opportunity. Russia is saying that European and all Western nations need to pay for Russian goods in Rubles and the G7 is saying, “Well, we won’t do that. You have to honor your current contracts.”
The Europeans get a substantial portion of their natural gas from Russia. So, if the Europeans refuse to pay in Rubles and Russia won’t sell Natural Gas to them, the obvious place for Europe to obtain Natural Gas will be the United States. The United States produces all of its own domestic natural gas, and therefore could, or at least should be able to export some to Europe.
Using Ichimoku Cloud analysis let’s look at the United States Natural Gas Futures market, from the Nymex exchange to see what the market thinks. Does the market think there is going to be additional demand for US natural gas?
The weekly chart has been going up for a long period of time. There’s been quite a move in this market which started in March of 2021. Crude oil started moving up in April of 2021. Both of these major energy markets having going up for a substantial period of time.
The weekly chart shows prices trending above the Ichimoku Cloud. Additionally, you’ll note the Ichimoku Cloud wave count and targets. The Ichimoku Cloud system has all of these elements built into its analysis.
The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging Line is also above the Cloud, confirming the uptrend. Price is above both Ichimoku Cloud moving averages. The longer-term and stronger moving average called the Base Line is in red. The Conversion Line is blue and it’s a faster moving average.
The Ichimoku Cloud system is indicating a bullish opportunity with this week’s close, as noted with the green up arrow. The market pulled back in December forming a nice retracement, but it has been heading up steadily since. If the price breaks above the wave 5 high, it should continue up to the target resistance zone. The black line at 7.58 indicates the most likely place to which the price will rise.
The daily chart is in a strong uptrend above the Ichimoku Cloud. Price has headed to the target zone but not yet reached the old high, as noted with the black target line. The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging line is above price and clear to head higher. The moving averages are rising, indicating the momentum is up, and more upside potential is likely.
With an up-trending daily chart and bullish weekly chart, the Ichimoku Cloud expects prices to go higher.
Natural Gas has been moving up steadily, since the end of March. Price and the Lagging Line are above the Ichimoku Cloud showing the uptrend. The 60-minute wave count is expecting a 5 wave to break up above the wave 3 high. The shorter-term moving average, the Conversion Line, has crossed above the longer-term moving average, the Base Line, making the momentum up. The Lagging Line has cleared through price opening up a path for the market to head higher. A break of the 60-minute wave 3 highs, could be an early opportunity to consider a bullish position in Natural Gas.
Overall, the Natural Gas Futures market is looking extremely bullish. It’s in an uptrend in all three timeframes. The Ichimoku Cloud analysis suggests the G7 may hold to its word and start buying some natural gas from the United States and less if not none, from Russia.
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The Russian Ruble is an interesting case study because of the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia. However, Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows the price movement has been predictable.
President Vladimir Putin has said starting this week that Western nations must now buy Russian goods in Rubles. Europeans have reliance to a significant degree on Russian oil and gas. The G7 has said they won’t pay in Rubles. The Russians have said, “Yes, you will.”
This disagreement is important as far as the Ruble is concerned. If the European nations end up paying for Russian goods in Rubles, they will first have to go into the market and buy Rubles in order to pay.
Let’s take a look and see what the Ichimoku Cloud has to say about the G7 – Russian Ruble standoff.
We’ll look at three charts with 3 different time frames, the long-term weekly chart, the medium-term daily chart, and the short-term 60-minute chart. Each chart shows the Ichimoku Cloud, which you’re familiar with, but you’ll also see wave counts and targets. Waves and price targets are part of the Ichimoku Cloud system, even though most people aren’t aware the Ichimoku Cloud has these features built into it.
The weekly chart had a big congestion zone. The market traded between the one and the two waves and went flat. The Ichimoku Cloud acts as an equilibrium spot. The market wants to go to this middle price. When we see a big move away from the Cloud, price wants to snap back. The Cloud moves towards price as well.
You’ll note the Ruble, before the invasion started, started drifting down inside the range. Once countries noticed Russian troops amassing, and then once the invasion happened, the Ruble fell completely to the bottom of the target support zone.
Price broke through the bottom of the target zone slightly but then bounced up. The Ruble is now finding resistance at the Ichimoku Base Line. There are two moving averages in the cloud system, the slower and the stronger is the red (Base Line) and that’s where the price is now. This point will also act as an additional resistance point due to it being supported when the Ruble was headed down. The beginning of the support zone now acts as resistance. Price is trying to clear that area on the weekly chart. It hasn’t yet. We’ll see over the next few weeks if the Ruble is able to break above.
If the Ruble clears the current resistance area, it’s almost certainly is going to move up to test the Ichimoku Cloud above it and likely go through it.
The daily chart shows a clear downtrend. The downtrend started in October and the Ruble has been struggling since. At the Wave 6 high, the price was rejected by the Ichimoku Cloud and bounced strongly down. Since the Wave 7 low on March 7th, the price has moved back up again. Price is above the Base Line. The momentum has shifted up as the Conversion line has moved over the Base Line. This momentum shift is a bullish sign but the price is sitting at a resistance point. Price has to breakthrough resistance points on both the weekly and the daily charts. The daily resistance is a .618 Fibonacci retracement between the zero and the seven waves.
Should the Ruble break through this resistance area over the next few days, it’s going to be a very bullish sign. Price would then move up to the .786 Fibonacci level, which places the market just in front of the five-wave and an old Span A. These areas will provide significant resistance.
The Ruble does have a very thin sinking cloud, which price is going to encounter. Thin Ichimoku Clouds, do not act as overly strong resistance. However, the Ruble could remain flat until price passes through its daily cloud, and then the price may head up. That process would be the most likely scenario. The market looks like it may want to head up to the .786.
On the other hand, the Ichimoku Cloud could hold the Ruble back and the price may sink in a fairly steep retracement back to the old targets. The Ruble would have to trade down and break through the two moving averages, so it is less likely.
Price on the 60-minute chart has been leading the way up with a strong uptrend. Price and the Lagging Line, the blue line lagging behind price, are both above the Ichimoku Cloud on the 60-minute chart. The uptrend wave count started back on March 7th and had a recent big 5 wave. Price is at a typical 1.618 target which will act as a resistance zone. It’s likely the Ruble will continue down and flatten for a while on the 60-minute chart. A horizontal move will let the Ichimoku Cloud catch up to it. Remember, price does not like being away from the Cloud for too long.
The overall takeaway is the Ruble is facing strong upside resistance and is overbought. Price is going to flatten with no immediate big move coming. However, the Ruble is approaching a point where it will make a decision. The market is at an inflection point. It will be interesting to watch. Does the G7 holds its ground and the Ruble heads back down again or are the Russian’s Ruble payment demands met and the Ruble rises.
The US Dollar is pulling back after the markets' rush to safety. The Ichimoku Cloud indicates there could be more upside potential for price to extend upward to the old highs from March 2020.
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Ichimoku Cloud analysis of the Gold (GC) market indicates a flat, bearish market. With the recent news of a potential Russian altercation along with ongoing inflation worries, investors are jittery. Gold has always been viewed as a safe haven when inflation seems to be rising. The market is skittish and Friday’s afternoon trading saw a move to Gold.
The Gold market has been consolidating for the last year. The Ichimoku Cloud shows a downtrend, with a bear flag formation. The pole down was set in Wave 0 to Wave 1 and a long clear flag has been established. Price has struggled to break either above or below the Ichimoku Cloud. A downward sloping diagonal trend line can be drawn from the Wave 2 high as the price has consolidated.
Should the price break above the diagonal trend line, the temptation to buy will occur. However, a more conservative approach would be to use an Ichimoku Cloud resistance point. The Span B at 1883.3 highlights a price at which Gold likes to trade. Price will encounter a lot of resistance at that Span B point. If the price can break above, Ichimoku Cloud Span B Gold should head up to the target zone and retest Wave 0 high.
The daily Ichimoku Cloud chart is in an uptrend. Price has broken above the Ichimoku Cloud Span B. The Lagging Line is above price and the cloud, indicating a bullish trend has started. Price on Friday went to retest the old highs of Wave 1.
Should price break above wave 1 highs, look for it to continue pushing to the daily target zone. However, gold is likely to first encounter resistance at 1883.3 as it heads up.
Gold shifted into an uptrend on the 60-minute chart in early February. Price and the Lagging line have remained above the Ichimoku Cloud since then and the uptrend has been strengthening. Friday afternoon’s news scared the market and caused prices to jump up straight up to the target zone. Note how the 1 pm bar was much larger than typical in Gold.
If the market’s reaction to Friday’s news was a short-term panic, the target zone should hold. Price will then recede and retrace down as the market looks overbought based on price’s distance from the Ichimoku Cloud.
Should price back-off, it would mean the up move in Gold was a short-term aberration. However, if the price breaks through the target zone, expect Gold to head higher. Gold’s next 60-minute target is 1883.6. As the weekly Span B resistance zone is 1883.3, it would not be surprising to see Gold head up to test this zone before determining whether to go even higher or fall back.
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Amazon (AMZN) is looking to test Ichimoku Cloud Span B resistance on the weekly chart. The daily chart is signaling a bullish opportunity. Watch the Ichimoku Cloud analysis to see where AMZN is headed.
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Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows USD/JPY continuing to be bullish into 2022.
USD/JPY price has encountered resistance at the equal length swing target zone. The weekly trend remains up with prices above the Ichimoku Cloud. The Ichimoku Cloud Lagging line is well above price and the momentum is up.
The weekly price looks to be consolidating at the equal length swing point. Should price cleanly break above the equal length swing and the weekly Ichimoku Cloud Wave 3 high, it’s likely to work its way to the top of the weekly target zone at 121.028.
The daily USD/JPY trend remains up with prices rising along with the Ichimoku Cloud. Price is making higher highs and higher lows as the Ichimoku Cloud Waves continue upwards. Daily prices as shown in waves 7, 8, 9, and 10 are becoming more congested due to the weekly chart hitting resistance but the bulls are not letting up.
Should the bulls succeed at pushing the daily prices above the congestion expect the market to rise towards 118.215 in the target zone.
USD/JPY on the hourly chart has been in a solid uptrend. Price is above the Ichimoku Cloud and the momentum is working to stay up. Price is trying to break above the Wave 5 high but the Lagging line is struggling to get clear of price. With the resistance on the higher time frames, the price may continue sideways before moving higher.
Anticipate the bulls will retain control and look for USD/JPY to extend higher.
Apple is one of the stronger markets on the board. It’s working hard to pull up the weaker players.
Apple is in a solid uptrend above the Ichimoku Cloud. The recent down move in the US stock indices appears in Apple as a retracement to the Ichimoku Cloud Base line. The down move early last week was recovered by the end of the week, leaving a strong looking bullish weekly candle.
Apple has more upside potential and looks to be positioning on the lower time frames for another move towards the 198.16 target.
Price has broken out of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and is continuing back in the direction of the daily uptrend. However, the daily chart indicates Apple is not yet ready to make its move. The Ichimoku Cloud Conversion line is still below the Base Line indicating price does not yet have upward momentum.
Additionally, the Ichimoku Cloud Lagging line is sitting under price holding back the bulls. Once momentum shifts upward, look for price to break out and head quickly toward the January pivot highs around 182
A new uptrend has been established on the 60-minute chart. Price is above the Ichimoku Cloud, the Lagging line is above the Cloud and the momentum is up.
Price, though, is overextended on the hourly chart as it has pulled away from the Ichimoku Cloud. Monday price action broke through the target resistance zone and reached its extended target. After strong moves, expect consolidation periods before the next break.
Price on the 60-minute chart has encountered resistance at the extended target. A long Span B at 175.55 should also act as resistance making it harder for the bulls to launch.
Once the 60-minute price clears resistance, anticipate momentum on the daily chart to turn up as well. AAPL is then clear to take off to the daily upside target of 208.50.
The Bears are in control of USA stocks on the short and medium term trends but the longer term weekly trend remains up.
Last week was a big down week in the SPX as shown on the chart by the relatively big down bar. However, the overall weekly SPX trend is still up. Price has broken through the Ichimoku Cloud Base line but price has not reached the Ichimoku Cloud. The markets weekly momentum remains up. Price looks to be testing the pivot low from 10/4/21.
SPX appears to be in a free fall on the daily chart. When price broke through the equal length swing of wave 20 to 21 at 4548 it fell quickly. Price hit both daily profit objectives and found support at the Span B and Fibanocci .786 target.
Price could extend down further to 4301 at the wave 18 old pivot lows.
Price was rejected by the Ichimoku Cloud at the top of wave 2 before the big down move. Price has dropped into our Ichimoku Cloud wave target zone.
As price has exceeded the .618 target within the wave target zone, expect a reversal bounce. The reversal bounce is unlikely to change the trend, rather look for price to pull back towards the Ichimoku Cloud.
Price is very extended from the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily and hourly charts with its latest down move so anticipate it will take a breather before making its next move.
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